農林中金総合研究所

トランプ政権の最初の一年間に、バイデン政権による農業の気候変動対策は、多くが撤回、変更、停止されたものの、それでも今までのところ農政のグリーン化は進展している。それは農業法の保全プログラムの予算が確保され、バイオ燃料の炭素強度に応じた税控除が維持されたことによる。農業者等の支持に支えられて保全プログラム、バイオ燃料、炭素市場が連携して農業の気候・環境対策が進む可能性がでてきている。
長期的な農産物貿易の地位低下と足下の農業経営収支悪化に対応が求められている。対中貿易交渉が順調に進まず大豆輸出が落ち込むなかで、大豆バイオ燃料の増産に資する使用義務量の拡大と国産化の促進が提案された。各国との貿易交渉も重視されている。
農産物価格の安値と生産費の上昇による損失を補てんするため、不足払い等の引上げと臨時の補助金が導入された。一方で食料援助予算が大幅に削減されて２大政党間の半世紀にわたる協力関係が崩れ、農業法の更新は難しくなっている。

Although many of the Biden administration’s climate change measures for agriculture were withdrawn, amended or suspended during the first year of the Trump administration, progress has nevertheless been made in greening agricultural policy so far. This is thanks to funding being secured for conservation programmes under the Farm Bill, and tax credits continuing to be based on the carbon intensity of biofuels. With support from farmers and other stakeholders, conservation programmes, biofuels and carbon markets now have the potential to collaborate in advancing climate and environmental measures in agriculture.
Meanwhile, policy measures are needed to address the long-term decline in agricultural trade and the current deterioration in farm profitability. Amid faltering trade negotiations with China and a slump in soybean exports, proposals have been put forward to increase the mandatory usage amount and promote domestic production in order to boost soy-based biofuel demand. Trade negotiations with other countries are also being prioritised.
To compensate for losses caused by low agricultural prices and persistently high production costs, measures such as increased PLC (deficit-payment-type direct payments) and temporary subsidies have been introduced.
However, at the same time, the budget for nutrition program (domestic food aid) has been significantly cut. This has caused the half-century-long cooperative relationship between the two major parties to break down and made it difficult to renew the Farm Bill as a whole.